Karl Rove Says Paxton Must Debate Talarico or Lose Texas Senate Race
Left 50%
Center 50%
Right 0%
1 left · 1 center · 0 right
What happened
A Fox News poll conducted September 24–28, 2026, found Democratic Texas state Representative James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51 percent to 49 percent among 881 likely voters in the race for Texas’s U.S. Senate seat, a result within the poll’s ±3-point margin of error. Among the survey’s 1,203 registered voters, Talarico’s lead was 7 points. The poll, jointly directed by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, recorded Talarico’s personal rating at 52 percent favorable to 44 percent unfavorable and Paxton’s at 40 percent favorable to 58 percent unfavorable. In the governor’s race on the same ballot, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott led Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa 52 percent to 47 percent. President Donald Trump, who carried Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024, had 44 percent job approval and 55 percent disapproval among respondents.
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Omitted — what each side leaves out
Unpacked
Left-leaning coverage reports Talarico ahead in Texas without the poll numbers that show why: Paxton's personal standing is badly underwater, including with Republicans. The Guardian asks whether he is "about to flip Texas." His net rating is down 18 points in the Fox News poll. That survey finds Republicans much likelier to view their nominee unfavorably than Democrats are to view Talarico that way. Those favorability scores never appear in left-leaning coverage, so a tight matchup reads like the state itself is moving.
The same divide shows up in word choice. Left-leaning coverage talks of a "blue wave," while right-leaning coverage calls that poll a "photo finish."
Does any survey besides this Fox poll show Talarico ahead, or is a result inside the error margin doing all the work?
Bottom line
The Guardian is asking if Talarico will flip Texas, but the Fox poll behind that story has him up only 2 points and shows Paxton with a majority-unfavorable rating the left-leaning write-ups skip.
The receipts — 2 facts one side's coverage lacks
- Paxton's net personal rating is underwater by 18 points (40% favorable vs. 58% unfavorable)
- Non-MAGA Republicans back Talarico 22% to 4% among MAGA Republicans
The Left View
The Guardian presents Talarico as “surprising everyone” by leading in “the Republican-led state of Texas” and asks whether he is “about to flip Texas for the Democrats,” with Jonathan Freedland and Texas Politics Project director James Henson discussing why “a blue wave in the Lone Star state would be seismic.” The Hill reports the same Fox News likely-voter result, notes that the Democrat’s lead “is within the poll’s 3-point margin of error,” and describes a “tightening” and “tight race.”
The Right View
Fox News frames a “Lone Star Senate showdown” and “photo finish,” giving Talarico a “razor-thin edge” from Democratic engagement, his net-positive ratings, and Republican “ambivalence,” including weaker non-MAGA enthusiasm and 20 percent of likely voters who backed Sen. John Cornyn in the March GOP primary now backing Talarico. It reports that seven in 10 Texans say cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, that those “falling behind financially” back Talarico by 32 points, and that immigration-focused voters back Paxton by 20 points. Republican pollster Daron Shaw said “Democrats in Texas will walk across broken glass to vote against Trump, so the question is whether the average Republican will vote in an election without Trump and where the Senate race features a controversial GOP candidate,” adding that “Paxton may owe his political life to Abbott, who is doing most of the get-out-the-vote work for the Republicans.”
Our Take (balanced)
The left’s strongest argument is that a Democrat ahead in long-Republican Texas, with a clear favorability advantage over Paxton and a wider registered-voter lead, could be a genuine opening—the possibility the Guardian calls potentially “seismic.” The right’s strongest argument, from the same poll, is that the likely-voter matchup is inside the margin of error, Paxton’s core groups still break his way, Abbott remains ahead, and the race turns on turnout without Trump on the ballot, as Shaw’s “controversial GOP candidate” remark underscores. The central unresolved tension is whether the Democratic edge is a structural shift in Texas or a mid-cycle enthusiasm gap Republican turnout could still erase.
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