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Paxton and Talarico Tied in Texas Senate Race Poll

6 sources · updated 2026-09-29
Left 0% Center 0% Right 100%
0 left · 0 center · 2 right

What happened

A Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll of 1,007 likely Texas voters, conducted September 19-22 and released Friday — a little more than a month before the November midterm elections — found Democratic Texas State Rep. James Talarico at 49 percent and Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton at 44 percent in the U.S. Senate race, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 percent and 3 percent undecided, and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent. A separate Big Data Poll found Talarico at 43.6 percent, about 4 points ahead of Paxton. In the TPOR survey, Talarico led independents by 32 points and led among Black, Latino, under-55, college-educated, and both male and female voters, while Paxton led among voters 55 and over and white voters. Talarico, who is seeking the Senate seat held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn, said he would "absolutely" be open to Cornyn's endorsement and would "seek his counsel" and "seek his guidance" regardless of whether Cornyn endorsed him.
Sourcing check · Partly on the record · 4 articles

1 of 3 articles cite a named source for the story. It was on the record from the first report.

What these terms mean and how they're counted
On the record · names a source 1 of 3
On the record means the article cites a source by name for the story's main claim: a person, or an institution speaking officially, such as a company statement or a named agency's spokesperson. The opposite is an unnamed source. The count is how many of the counted articles cite at least one such source; the names are everyone named across them, each once however the articles spell it. Here: James Talarico
Primary evidence · cites a document or data 2 of 3
Primary evidence means the article cites a record you could check yourself: a court filing or ruling, a dataset or report, a recording or transcript, an official statement or press release, market data. A quote is not a document. The count is how many articles cite one. Here: poll
Credits another outlet 0 of 3
The article says the story comes from another outlet's reporting (“first reported by Reuters”). Those articles relay the story; they are not independent confirmation. Here: Each article presents its own reporting.
Unnamed sources 0 of 3
The main claim is attributed to people who are not identified: “people familiar with the matter”, “officials said”. The count is how many articles do this.
How it developed
When the first report landed and whether it named anyone; when the first named source and the first document appeared. Here: First report Sep 28, 20:01 UTC by The Hill, naming its source. First document in the first report, from The Hill (poll).
Not counted 1
Opinion, analysis and video pieces, and articles too short to assess. Every count above is out of the counted articles. An article republished under a new headline is one article.
This is about who is cited, not whether the story is true. Each source below says what it names. How we count
Omitted — what each side leaves out

Unpacked

Right-leaning coverage of the Texas Senate poll reports the voter groups behind the lead; left-leaning coverage of the same survey does not. A reader of The Hill learns only that Talarico is ahead by 5 points. Right-leaning coverage at the Washington Examiner added a 32-point independent edge and had Paxton leading only among white and older voters. That split changes the story from a generic horse race to a coalition that has already peeled off independents. Left-leaning coverage also ran a second survey that put Talarico at 43.6 percent. Right-leaning coverage of the race's polling never mentions that lower figure, or the 4-point margin The Hill reported from it. Why does one survey show Talarico at 49 percent and the other well below that?
Bottom line

The 32-point independent lead in the Texas Senate poll ran in the Washington Examiner, not in The Hill's version of the same survey.

The receipts — 4 facts one side's coverage lacks
  • Talarico held a 32-point lead among independents numberin Washington Examiner · absent from left-leaning coverage
  • Margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent numberin Washington Examiner · absent from left-leaning coverage
  • Poll surveyed 1,007 likely Texas voters from September 19 to 22 numberin Washington Examiner · absent from left-leaning coverage
  • Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 percent numberin Washington Examiner · absent from left-leaning coverage
The Left View
Left-leaning outlets presented the surveys as showing Talarico ahead in the Texas Senate contest, with The Hill leading on the five-point TPOR advantage and, separately, a roughly four-point edge in the Big Data Poll. The New York Times framed a remaining obstacle rather than the horse race: Black voters "largely rejected" Talarico in the Democratic primary, and "getting Black voters to the polls" is a "pivotal challenge," though "recent interviews suggest the hard feelings may be wearing off."
The Right View
The Washington Examiner reported the TPOR figures and crosstabs in detail, including Talarico's independent lead and Paxton's advantage only with older and white voters. Separately, it highlighted Talarico's remark that he would "absolutely" accept Cornyn's endorsement, quoting him as saying he is "running for his seat" and will "seek his counsel" and "seek his guidance in doing this big, important job" whether Cornyn endorses him or not.
Our Take (balanced)
Both sides report the same TPOR finding that Talarico leads Paxton by five points among likely voters. Left-leaning coverage's strongest additional claim is that the lead could still fail if Black voters, who "largely rejected" Talarico in the Democratic primary, do not turn out — a "pivotal challenge" the Times says may be easing. Right-leaning coverage's strongest additional emphasis is Talarico's statement he would "absolutely" accept Cornyn's endorsement, presenting a Democrat bidding for a Republican senator's support. The central unresolved tension is whether Talarico's polling advantage among likely voters and independents is the decisive fact, or whether the race still turns on an unfinished Democratic coalition and on how much Republican-aligned support he can attract.

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