Florida Poll Shows Republicans Leading Governor and Senate Races
Left 50%
Center 50%
Right 0%
1 left · 1 center · 0 right
What happened
A nationwide Rasmussen Reports poll of 1,794 U.S. likely voters, conducted September 24 and 27–30, found Hispanic voters favoring Republicans over Democrats 50 percent to 42 percent, compared with a 44–42 Democratic edge among that group in mid-September; overall, 47 percent said they would vote Democrat and 44 percent Republican if the election were held then. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted September 28–October 1 for NBC South Florida/Telemundo among 625 Florida likely voters found Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 48 percent to 41 percent for governor and Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon 50 percent to 40 percent for U.S. Senate. In a companion sample of 400 Hispanic registered voters, Donalds led 48–43 and Moody 47–40, while 49 percent of Hispanic respondents disapproved of President Donald Trump’s job performance and 45 percent approved; inflation and the cost of living was the top issue for 30 percent of the statewide sample. The surveys follow a large recent shift among Hispanic voters: Joe Biden won them by 25 points nationally in 2020 and carried Miami-Dade County by 7 points, while Trump lost Hispanic voters by 3 points to Kamala Harris in 2024 and won Miami-Dade by about 11 points.
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Omitted — what each side leaves out
Unpacked
Left-leaning coverage treats Florida Republicans' Hispanic leads as compatible with those voters leaving Trump. His job rating is reported underwater among that group, and NBC News says they appear to be "swinging back away from Trump." Right-leaning coverage of the same Mason-Dixon poll reports the Republican candidates ahead among Hispanic voters and never mentions that rating. A reader of only that account would not know Trump himself is underwater with those voters.
Right-leaning coverage instead leads with a national survey putting Republicans at 50 percent among Hispanic voters. Left-leaning coverage never reports that poll and opens on Florida's governor and Senate races, then on Democratic hopes of winning the bloc back.
How can Trump poll underwater with Florida Hispanics while Republican candidates still lead them?
Bottom line
You get two different Hispanic-shift stories because NBC News never reports Republicans at 50 percent nationally among those voters, and Breitbart never reports Trump underwater with them in Florida.
The receipts — 2 facts one side's coverage lacks
- 57% of Florida Hispanic voters said they were less likely to support a candidate described as a democratic socialist
- DCCC chair Suzan DelBene said Trump broke a promise to go after the worst of the worst on immigration
The Left View
NBC News framed the Florida survey as suggesting “limits” to Democrats’ apparent 2026 momentum in some places, while arguing that Florida Hispanic voters “appear to be swinging back away from Trump” even as Republican candidates still held leads among them. The outlet pointed to Trump’s already-reported underwater job rating with that group and to Democrats’ argument that recent special-election victories in Florida show the party “has already started winning back the Hispanic vote, in part because of Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement policy,” with unhappiness over prices also weighing on his ratings. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Suzan DelBene told NBC that on immigration, Trump and his party broke a promise “to go after the worst of the worst.” In the Hispanic sample, inflation and the cost of living ranked first, followed by the direction of the state or country and property taxes; immigration enforcement was fourth at 12 percent.
The Right View
Breitbart presented the Rasmussen result as giving Republicans an “edge” among Hispanic voters and as contradicting “the corporate media establishment narrative of Hispanic voters fleeing the GOP,” noting that Republicans had flipped a mid-September Democratic edge among that group. The outlet treated the finding as part of a multi-election shift, citing Pew Research Center’s already-reported 2020-to-2024 change from a 25-point Democratic Hispanic margin to Trump coming “nearly even” with Harris. On the Florida poll, Breitbart stressed that Donalds and Moody both led among Hispanic voters, that 57 percent of Hispanic respondents said they were “less likely” to support a candidate described as a “democratic socialist,” and that inflation and the cost of living ranked as the biggest influence on vote choice.
Our Take (balanced)
The left’s strongest argument is that Trump’s personal standing with Florida Hispanics is already underwater and that issue rankings—cost of living first, immigration enforcement only fourth among Hispanic voters—together with Democrats’ claims of “huge swings” in Florida legislative special elections, indicate the 2024 Hispanic movement toward Republicans may be softening even where GOP nominees still lead. The right’s strongest argument is that two contemporaneous surveys show Republican candidates ahead among Hispanic voters both nationally (50–42) and in Florida, aligning with the documented collapse of Democrats’ once-wide Hispanic presidential margin rather than with a narrative that Hispanics are “fleeing the GOP.” The central unresolved tension is whether those Hispanic Republican leads mark a durable partisan realignment or a still-fluid, candidate- and conditions-dependent pattern that can coexist with backlash against Trump and economic discontent.
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