Poll Shows Democrats Leading in Texas Senate and Governor Races
Left 33%
Center 33%
Right 33%
1 left · 1 center · 1 right
What happened
A Marist Poll conducted September 17–20 among 1,139 registered Texas voters found Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico at 50 percent and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton at 44 percent, with 4 percent undecided and 2 percent choosing other; the margin of error was plus or minus 4.4 percent. Independents preferred Talarico 55 percent to 35 percent. By age, Generation Z favored Talarico 74 to 18, millennials 52 to 36, and Generation X 49 to 48, while Baby Boomer, Silent, and Greatest generation voters preferred Paxton by 23 points; white evangelical Christians backed Paxton 75 to 22. The same poll showed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa leading her Republican opponent. The contests are for the November 2026 midterms. RealClearPolling’s average put Talarico ahead by 2.8 percent.
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Omitted — what each side leaves out
Unpacked
Left-leaning coverage reports a Democratic Senate lead without the survey's error margin or the smaller average of other polls, so the advantage looks firmer than the full numbers support. Talarico stands at 50 percent against Ken Paxton in The Hill's account. Right-leaning coverage in Breitbart supplies a margin of error of 4.4 percent. It also cites a RealClearPolling average with Talarico up 2.8 percent.
Right-leaning coverage leads with biography rather than ballots, introducing Talarico as someone who believes there are six biological sexes before any vote share appears. That account then turns to his Austin pastor and an Easter sermon doubting the resurrection. Left-leaning coverage never raises those claims and instead pairs the Senate result with Gina Hinojosa's lead for governor.
What numbers did the governor's poll actually show, and against which Republican?
Bottom line
A Hill reader sees Talarico at 50 percent and no error bar; a Breitbart reader gets the 4.4-point margin but never learns Democrats were also polled ahead for governor.
The receipts — 4 facts one side's coverage lacks
- The Marist survey's margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent
- Democrats also hold an edge in the Texas governor's race
- White evangelical Christians back Paxton 75 percent to 22 percent
- The survey interviewed 1,139 registered voters on September 17-20
The Left View
The Hill presents the Marist findings as Democrats leading Texas’s Senate and gubernatorial contests, treating Talarico’s and Hinojosa’s advantages as a straightforward electoral fact heading into the 2026 midterms. The coverage does not discuss the candidates’ records or religious views.
The Right View
Breitbart reports Talarico’s lead but frames it against positions it says include a belief that there are “six biological sexes” and support for “the genital mutilation of confused children,” and against sermons by his pastor and mentor, Rev. Jim Rigby, that included “Maybe Jesus rose from the dead, but maybe not.” It uses the poll’s evangelical and older-voter splits to argue Paxton still holds the coalition that typically decides Texas races, and quotes the RNC chairman saying Republicans will coalesce behind Paxton and that “Ruby Red Texas” will reject Talarico.
Our Take (balanced)
The left’s strongest argument is that both the Marist registered-voter survey and a multi-poll average show Democrats ahead in the Senate and governor’s races in a state Republicans have long held, including a clear independent preference. The right’s strongest argument is that Paxton still dominates the evangelical and older blocs that usually decide Texas statewide elections, and that Talarico’s positions on biological sex, pediatric gender medicine, and Christian doctrine—as Breitbart characterizes them—remain largely untested with that electorate. The central unresolved tension is whether the early lead among younger and independent voters marks a durable shift, or a snapshot that will close as Republicans unify behind Paxton and define Talarico to conservative voters.
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