Donalds, Moody Hold Double-Digit Leads in Florida Races
Left 50%
Center 0%
Right 50%
1 left · 0 center · 1 right
What happened
A Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research poll released Tuesday found Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 52 percent to 41 percent among modeled likely voters in Florida’s gubernatorial race and Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democrat Angie Nixon by the same 52–41 margin in the U.S. Senate contest. Moody was appointed in January 2025 to fill the seat vacated when Marco Rubio became secretary of state; the November election will decide who serves the remainder of that term through 2028. Donalds, a Naples congressman endorsed by President Donald Trump, is seeking to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis and named Republican state Sen. Bryan Ávila as his running mate; Jolly, a former Republican congressman who registered as a Democrat in 2025, named former Rep. Gwen Graham and has called for a moratorium on data centers, which Donalds has opposed. Donalds’ August congressional financial disclosure reported that he and his wife, Erika Donalds, own up to $390,000 in stocks connected to data-center and technology firms including Microsoft, Amazon, and Florida-based Monolithic Power Systems; in 2024 the Campaign Legal Center filed a complaint alleging he had failed to disclose up to $1.6 million in stock trades under the STOCK Act, which requires lawmakers to report trades within 45 days, and the complaint’s outcome has not been made public. In July, Politico reported that tech companies, including four developers pursuing or previously proposing data centers in Florida, had donated millions to Donalds’ campaign, which Mother Jones put at $125 million total; Florida Politics analyst Steve Vancore said the Stetson poll’s opt-in online panel had too many Trump voters by about five points, while a James Madison Institute poll released October 9 and an NBC 6/Telemundo/Mason-Dixon poll also showed Donalds and Moody ahead.
Sourcing check · Fully on the record · 2 articles
2 of 2 articles cite a named source for the story. It was on the record from the first report.
What these terms mean and how they're counted
- On the record · names a source 2 of 2
- On the record means the article cites a source by name for the story's main claim: a person, or an institution speaking officially, such as a company statement or a named agency's spokesperson. The opposite is an unnamed source. The count is how many of the counted articles cite at least one such source; the names are everyone named across them, each once however the articles spell it. Here: Byron Donalds, Erika Donalds, Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research and Steve Vancore
- Primary evidence · cites a document or data 2 of 2
- Primary evidence means the article cites a record you could check yourself: a court filing or ruling, a dataset or report, a recording or transcript, an official statement or press release, market data. A quote is not a document. The count is how many articles cite one. Here: Congressional financial disclosure report, poll results
- Credits another outlet 0 of 2
- The article says the story comes from another outlet's reporting (“first reported by Reuters”). Those articles relay the story; they are not independent confirmation. Here: Each article presents its own reporting.
- Unnamed sources 0 of 2
- The main claim is attributed to people who are not identified: “people familiar with the matter”, “officials said”. The count is how many articles do this.
- How it developed
- When the first report landed and whether it named anyone; when the first named source and the first document appeared. Here: First report Oct 14, 00:22 UTC by Breitbart, naming its source. First document in the first report, from Breitbart (poll results).
- Not counted 0
- Opinion, analysis and video pieces, and articles too short to assess. Every count above is out of the counted articles. An article republished under a new headline is one article.
This is about who is cited, not whether the story is true. Each source below says what it names. How we count
Omitted — what each side leaves out
Unpacked
Left-leaning coverage never reports the Stetson results and instead tells readers the Florida governor's race is a toss-up, while right-leaning coverage of the horse race is simply more complete and never records the close-race claim. The contest is called tight in Mother Jones, with Donalds up only a few points in some surveys. Donalds is at 52 percent to Jolly among modeled likely voters in Breitbart, with the same edge for Moody and no toss-up mentioned.
Right-leaning coverage puts the horse race in the headline and first sentence. Left-leaning coverage never names Moody or the Senate contest and opens by calling Donalds "unapologetically enthusiastic about data centers".
Which named polls show a toss-up, and did those surveys use the same modeled likely-voter screen as Stetson?
Bottom line
If you only read Mother Jones, you would not know a Stetson poll has Donalds and Moody each up 11 points; if you only read Breitbart, you would not know any outlet is still calling the governor's race a toss-up.
The receipts — 4 facts one side's coverage lacks
- Stetson CPOR poll found Donalds leading Jolly 52 percent to 41 percent among modeled likely voters
- Steve Vancore wrote that the Stetson panel had too many Trump voters, by about 5 points, and demographic weighting could not fix it
- Adding party registration to the Stetson weighting trimmed Donalds' lead to about ten points
- An NBC6/Telemundo/Mason-Dixon poll found Moody ahead 50-40 and Donalds leading 48-41
The Left View
Mother Jones frames Donalds’ bid around his “unapologetically enthusiastic” support for data centers despite what it calls “growing evidence of the unpopularity of data centers among voters,” quoting him telling Miami businesses that Florida was “wide open” for development of “pristine” land and later saying “There ain’t no bans coming.” The magazine treats the couple’s industry-linked holdings, Erika Donalds’ income from Elon Musk’s X Corp., and Musk’s November endorsement as part of a broader AI and data-center connection, and quotes Campaign Legal Center ethics director Kedric Payne that not being involved in day-to-day trading “does not in any way remove the conflict of interest or the ethical issues” because an official “would have the ability to influence the value of the stocks, possibly with his official duties.” It notes Donalds’ seat on the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence, Ávila’s failed bill to shield developers’ plans from public scrutiny, and a successful state law requiring data centers to cover their own utility costs. Residents in Citrus and Sarasota counties, including some Republicans, told the magazine they felt “threatened” by proposed centers, with one saying “Everything for this election, for me, is based on the data centers”; Mother Jones says some such voters would back Jolly, that other polling shows a tight race or a toss-up, and that tech donations “might also dissuade voters who oppose data centers from supporting him.”
The Right View
Breitbart presents the Stetson survey as showing Donalds and Moody each with an 11-point lead and Republicans ahead 50 percent to 41 percent on the generic congressional ballot, and reports Moody’s net approval at plus-21, DeSantis at plus-14, and Trump narrowly above water at plus-1. It emphasizes Trump’s endorsement, that Donalds’ first-quarter fundraising “topped $22 million, dwarfing the rest of the field,” that he has campaigned on continuing DeSantis’s record, and that he would become Florida’s first Black governor if he wins. The outlet describes Jolly as having “left the party and registered as a Democrat in 2025” and as centering his campaign on the state’s affordability crisis, and Nixon as a Jacksonville state representative endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders who upset retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman in the Democratic primary but “has badly trailed in fundraising.” Breitbart includes Vancore’s critique that demographic weighting “couldn’t fix” an overweight of Trump voters and that adding party registration trimmed Donalds’ lead to about ten points, but concludes that “the Stetson results track other recent surveys.”
Our Take (balanced)
The right’s strongest argument is that several polls—Stetson, the James Madison Institute, and Mason-Dixon—show Donalds and Moody ahead by roughly eight to eleven points, consistent with Republican advantages in Florida, the Stetson approval figures, and a large fundraising gap. The left’s strongest argument is that Donalds’ explicit rejection of data-center bans, disclosed investments in related companies, a STOCK Act complaint whose outcome is not public, and millions in donations from firms seeking to build in the state give opponents a conflict-of-interest and local quality-of-life attack that Mother Jones found already moving some voters, including Republicans, in affected counties. The central unresolved tension is whether those data-center and ethics concerns are a statewide race-changer capable of closing a double-digit polling gap, or a geographically concentrated issue that leaves the broader electorate where most of the cited surveys place it.
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