US Economic Indicators Signal Brighter Growth Prospects
Left 50%
Center 0%
Right 50%
1 left · 0 center · 1 right
What happened
The Conference Board said Thursday that its Leading Economic Index was unchanged in September at 99.6 after a 0.1 percent decline in August, and rose 0.6 percent over the six months ending in September, reversing a 1.1 percent decline in the preceding six months, with eight of ten components improving. The board said its recession-warning system was not triggered—the index increased at about a 1.2 percent annualized rate over six months and its six-month diffusion index stood at 80—and it now expects real GDP to grow 2.2 percent in 2026 and 2.0 percent in 2027. Its Coincident Economic Index rose 0.3 percent in September to 115.3, with all four components contributing positively, while its consumer confidence index plunged 6.7 points to 81.9, the lowest since April 2014. Separately, U.S. small-business optimism fell to a three-month low in September, the net share of owners expecting business conditions to improve declined 4 percentage points to a four-month low of 6 percent, and a smaller share of firms indicated it was a good time to expand. The Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing output increased 0.3 percent in September.
Sourcing check · Fully on the record · 2 articles
1 of 1 article cites a named source for the story. It was on the record from the first report.
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- How it developed
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This is about who is cited, not whether the story is true. Each source below says what it names. How we count
Omitted — what each side leaves out
Unpacked
Left-leaning coverage omits the Conference Board's finding that leading indicators have turned higher and no longer warn of recession, which is the story right-leaning coverage tells. Small-business optimism is the only signal Bloomberg puts in view, and it fell as economic expectations dimmed, with no reference to the leading index. Right-leaning coverage in Breitbart is simply more complete on that report, and it says eight of the index's components improved. One audience hears that firm sentiment is fading. The other hears that expansion remains the base case.
The verbs do not match. Left-leaning coverage says economic expectations "dimmed." Right-leaning coverage says prospects for growth have "brightened."
Neither side asks how a rising leading index should be read against small-business owners who, in the same month, were less inclined to expand.
Bottom line
Hear only Bloomberg and September is a downbeat month for small firms. Hear only Breitbart and the same month is a rebound in the leading index after a 0.6 percent gain, with recession warnings off.
The receipts — 6 facts one side's coverage lacks
- The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index rose 0.6 percent over the six months ending in September, reversing a 1.1 percent decline.
- U.S. small business optimism fell to a three-month low in September, and a smaller share of firms said it was a good time to expand.
- The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index plunged 6.7 points in September to 81.9, its lowest level since April 2014.
- The net share of owners who expect business conditions to improve declined 4 percentage points to 6 percent.
- JPMorganChase says most small business owners view their own business outlook in a positive light.
- The Conference Board expects real GDP to grow 2.2 percent in 2026.
The Left View
Bloomberg framed September’s indicators around deteriorating small-business sentiment rather than a brighter expansion. It emphasized dimmed economic expectations and fewer firms calling it a good time to expand, while relaying JPMorganChase’s assessment that most owners still view their own business outlook positively as highlighting “the resiliency of small businesses.” Coverage from Chase’s Make Your Move Summit treated owner mood and willingness to expand as the practical test of whether conditions are improving.
The Right View
Breitbart framed the Conference Board report as evidence that “prospects for U.S. economic growth have brightened,” with a “broad improvement in leading economic indicators pointing toward a continued expansion” and “no warning of an approaching recession.” It highlighted widespread six-month gains in leading components, a stronger coincident index, and the manufacturing-output increase as signs of underlying momentum, and treated the consumer-confidence drop as a “widening divergence between Americans’ views of the economy and measures of actual economic activity.” It quoted Conference Board manager Justyna Zabinska-La Monica saying the leading index’s six-month growth rate “suggests continued economic expansion,” with business investment becoming a more important driver relative to consumer spending.
Our Take (balanced)
The right’s strongest argument is that the Conference Board’s leading and coincident indexes—up on a six-month basis, with recession-warning thresholds unmet and an upgraded 2026–27 GDP forecast—show continued expansion, backed by the September rise in manufacturing output. The left’s strongest argument is that falling small-business optimism, weaker expansion plans, and consumer confidence at a 2014 low show firms and households do not share that brighter outlook. The central unresolved tension is whether improving leading and coincident activity or deteriorating business and household sentiment better describes the economy’s near-term path.
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