Republicans Assess Midterm Losses as Florida Holds Firm
Left 50%
Center 0%
Right 50%
2 left · 0 center · 2 right
What happened
In Florida’s 2026 midterm elections, Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds defeated Democrat David Jolly for governor 50.0 percent to 48.7 percent, and Republican Sen. Ashley Moody—appointed in 2025 by Gov. Ron DeSantis to complete Marco Rubio’s term after Rubio became U.S. secretary of state—defeated Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon 50.9 percent to 48.0 percent, both with more than 95 percent of ballots counted, according to the Associated Press; Donalds became the first Black Republican governor in U.S. history. Nationally, Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress by large margins and took major statewide offices in other Republican-leaning states, including the U.S. Senate in South Carolina and the Senate and governorship in Georgia, while Republicans absorbed deep losses in Texas. Florida Republicans held the governorship, the Senate seat, and a 20–8 U.S. House edge; Democrats were expected to flip about 15 state House seats, ending the GOP’s legislative supermajority, and flipped control of the Hillsborough County Commission after electing four Democrats there. Jolly carried Miami-Dade, Hillsborough, and Pinellas counties, which Donald Trump had won in 2024, and in the governor’s race Donalds raised more than $125 million compared with Jolly’s roughly $22 million.
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Omitted — what each side leaves out
Unpacked
Right-leaning coverage never reports that Democrats were on track to end the Republican supermajority in Florida's legislature, so a hold at the top of the ticket reads like continued one-party rule. Mother Jones says the party was expected to flip about 15 state House seats. That would mean Republicans "can no longer act alone" on a veto override, a result the Daily Caller does not mention. Winning the governor's race and the Senate then sounds like the same lock as before, not a night that changed who can pass major bills.
Left-leaning coverage in the New York Times calls Florida the "last main anchor standing" for Republicans. Right-leaning coverage in the Daily Caller says the GOP "hangs on for dear life" in the same races.
What was the governor's certified margin in Florida, and how many legislative seats actually changed hands?
Bottom line
You can finish the Daily Caller's Florida night and never hear that Mother Jones had Democrats flipping about 15 state House seats — the chunk that ends a veto-override supermajority.
The receipts — 4 facts one side's coverage lacks
- Democrats were expected to flip about 15 Florida state House seats, ending the GOP supermajority
- An Associated Press analysis found movement to the left in almost every Florida county
- Donalds raised more than $125 million compared with Jolly's roughly $22 million
- Ashley Moody won 50.9% to Angie Nixon's 48.0% with more than 95% of ballots counted
The Left View
Left-leaning sources framed Florida’s statewide losses as accompanied by a measurable leftward shift. Mother Jones cited an Associated Press analysis finding movement to the left in almost every county, greatest in metro Miami, Tampa Bay, and Orlando, and treated Jolly’s wins in those Trump 2024 counties plus Democratic victories in several congressional districts redrawn to favor Republicans as “glimmers of blue hope.” Miami-Dade Democratic chair Laura Kelley said the party had been “counted out” but “built a foundation we’re going to build on.” Citing the Miami Herald, Mother Jones stressed that without a supermajority Republicans “can no longer act alone on certain major decisions, including overriding a governor’s veto.” Former state Rep. Anna Eskamani said “MAGA, as far as I’m concerned, is dead and we should act like it,” arguing the down-ballot gains came despite the fundraising gap and national Democratic funders who “largely skipped investing in the state”; she urged them to “stop ignoring Florida.” The New York Times called Florida “the last main anchor standing” for Republicans after the national surge.
The Right View
Right-leaning sources cast the same results as a narrow but decisive hold that isolated Florida from a national “blue tsunami.” The Daily Caller said Republicans “eked out narrow wins” that were “raising the question of whether Florida has reverted to being a swing state,” noting the governor’s race was far closer than Trump’s 13-point 2024 victory and DeSantis’s nearly 20-point reelection, while underscoring that a Republican has now won the Florida governorship eight consecutive times and that Nixon is a Democratic Socialists of America member. Fox News quoted Rep. Randy Fine, one of the few Republicans whose margin increased (from 14 to 19 points), saying Floridians “know how good we have it and they don’t want to screw up the state,” and diagnosing the national loss as a failure to “make them think we cared about them.” Fine said Republicans would spend “an ugly two years” on defense, warning Democrats “will seek to reopen the border and allow illegals to flood in” and “seek mass amnesty,” and contrasted Florida with Texas, which he said had “a big influx of illegal immigrants” and “didn’t fight back against the Islamification of their state.”
Our Take (balanced)
The left’s strongest argument is that near-universal county-level movement toward Democrats, Jolly’s wins in Trump 2024 counties, the end of the legislative supermajority, and a county-commission flip in a Trump county demonstrate a genuine partisan shift that the statewide losses obscure—made more striking by a roughly six-to-one fundraising disadvantage. The right’s strongest argument is that Republicans still won every major statewide race and kept a 20–8 U.S. House edge while Democrats seized Congress and other large red states, evidence that Florida voters treated the state’s record as distinct from the national backlash. The central unresolved tension is whether the sub-two-point statewide margins and down-ballot Democratic gains mean Florida is reverting to a swing state, or whether holding the top of the ticket against a national wave confirms it remains the GOP’s last large-state anchor.
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