Flanagan Leads Tafoya in Minnesota Senate Race Poll
Left 33%
Center 33%
Right 33%
1 left · 1 center · 1 right
What happened
A Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,182 likely Minnesota voters conducted October 20–21, 2026, found Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leading Republican former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya 48 percent to 45 percent, with 7 percent undecided, in Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). The three-point gap is within the poll’s ±3 percentage point margin of error. Democrat Kamala Harris won Minnesota 51 percent to 47 percent in 2024. The survey found women favoring Flanagan 54–40 and men favoring Tafoya 51–42; Flanagan led among voters under 30 while Tafoya led among voters ages 40 to 64; and unaffiliated voters split closely, with 11 percent still undecided.
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Omitted — what each side leaves out
Unpacked
A reader of left-leaning coverage cannot tell the Minnesota Senate race is a statistical tie. The Hill describes Flanagan as holding a "slim lead" without the poll's split or its error range. Right-leaning coverage reports her at 48 percent, a figure Breitbart places inside the survey's margin of error. Absent that detail, the contest reads as a Democrat ahead rather than even.
Left-leaning coverage opens on why a blue wave might miss Minnesota. The Hill cites a "difficult midterm environment for Republicans." Right-leaning coverage opens on the horse race and never mentions gas prices or that national frame.
What have Flanagan and Tafoya actually proposed that would explain a race this close?
Bottom line
The Hill never shows Flanagan at 48 percent, so Minnesota's Senate race looks like a Democrat ahead instead of a poll too close to call.
The receipts — 4 facts one side's coverage lacks
- Kamala Harris won Minnesota 51 percent to 47 percent in 2024
- Seven percent of likely voters are undecided
- High gas prices and President Trump's record-low approval rating are creating a difficult midterm environment for Republicans
- The contest is an open Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith
The Left View
Left-leaning outlets frame the result as a warning that a national Democratic midterm advantage may not extend to this race. The Hill cites high gas prices and President Trump’s record-low approval rating as creating “a difficult midterm environment for Republicans,” but says Democrats are nonetheless “facing an unexpectedly competitive race” for the open Minnesota seat. NewsNation describes Flanagan’s slim lead as one that has “only narrowed.”
The Right View
Breitbart presents the poll as evidence of a tight contest inside the margin of error, highlighting strong partisan loyalty on both sides, a 23-point gender gap, and a near-even split among unaffiliated voters. The outlet notes Flanagan’s backing from Democrats and younger voters alongside Tafoya’s strength with Republicans and voters ages 40 to 64, and reports that more women than men say they are “very excited” to vote. Coverage situates the closeness against Minnesota’s 2024 presidential result, underscoring that the Senate numbers are tighter than the state’s recent partisan lean.
Our Take (balanced)
The left’s strongest argument is that national conditions—Trump’s low approval and high gas prices—should favor Democrats in this midterm, making a race this tight in a Harris-won state an unexpected shortfall. The right’s strongest argument, drawn from the Rasmussen crosstabs, is that the contest is a toss-up: the lead sits inside the margin of error, unaffiliated voters are split, and large gender and age divides give both candidates a path. The central unresolved tension is whether that closeness shows Democrats failing to convert a favorable national climate in a blue-leaning state, or simply the ordinary competitiveness of an open Senate seat.
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