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Big Oil Profits Surge Amid Iran Conflict and High Gas Prices

8 sources · updated 2026-10-31
Left 75% Center 0% Right 25%
6 left · 0 center · 2 right

What happened

The New York Times first reported on October 30, 2026, that more than 50 major U.S. oil and gas companies earned over $130 billion in profits from April through September during the war with Iran that the United States and Israel launched on February 28, which disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—nearly three times the same period a year earlier; the New York Post credited that Times analysis as the origin of the figure, and NBC News the same day cited Donald Trump and ExxonMobil as the first on-record sources. ExxonMobil’s third-quarter profit doubled to $15.4 billion and Chevron’s surged nearly 200 percent to $9.9 billion, both beating analyst estimates, as Brent crude traded near $118 a barrel and Gulf Coast refineries ran at or near 100 percent capacity; Exxon raised its quarterly dividend to $1.07 and set a $20 billion stock-buyback plan. Average U.S. regular gasoline stood at $4.20 a gallon, about 40 percent above prewar levels, and diesel at $6.32, up more than 70 percent from a year earlier. At an October 24 rally in Georgia, President Trump said the country was “making hundreds of billions of dollars” because of events in the Middle East, after pledging as a 2024 candidate to cut energy prices in half within 12 months and bring gasoline below $2 a gallon.
Sourcing check · Mostly on the record · 8 articles

5 of 8 articles cite a named source for the story. It started with unnamed sources; a named source appeared 4 hours later.

What these terms mean and how they're counted
On the record · names a source 5 of 8
On the record means the article cites a source by name for the story's main claim: a person, or an institution speaking officially, such as a company statement or a named agency's spokesperson. The opposite is an unnamed source. The count is how many of the counted articles cite at least one such source; the names are everyone named across them, each once however the articles spell it. Here: Donald Trump, ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Darren Woods and Mike Wirth
Primary evidence · cites a document or data 6 of 8
Primary evidence means the article cites a record you could check yourself: a court filing or ruling, a dataset or report, a recording or transcript, an official statement or press release, market data. A quote is not a document. The count is how many articles cite one. Here: earnings report, market data, company earnings report, corporate earnings reports
Credits another outlet 1 of 8
The article says the story comes from another outlet's reporting (“first reported by Reuters”). Those articles relay the story; they are not independent confirmation. Here: New York Times
Unnamed sources 1 of 8
The main claim is attributed to people who are not identified: “people familiar with the matter”, “officials said”. The count is how many articles do this.
How it developed
When the first report landed and whether it named anyone; when the first named source and the first document appeared. Here: First report Oct 30, 10:35 UTC by New York Times, with no named source. First named source 4 hours later, from NBC News. First document 4 hours later, from NBC News (earnings report).
Not counted 0
Opinion, analysis and video pieces, and articles too short to assess. Every count above is out of the counted articles. An article republished under a new headline is one article.
This is about who is cited, not whether the story is true. Each source below says what it names. How we count
Omitted — what each side leaves out

Unpacked

Oil is moving through the Persian Gulf at prewar volume again, a fact that appears only in right-leaning coverage and undercuts the idea that today's pump prices are still a blocked-strait story. Right-leaning coverage in the New York Post reports that shipments have recently surpassed prewar levels even as gasoline stays high. Left-leaning coverage does not report the recovery. An ExxonMobil CEO interview on NBC News instead describes "the closure" in the Strait of Hormuz as the reason ships must take longer routes. Left-leaning coverage is the only side that reports the windfall going back to investors. Exxon is raising its dividend, according to NBC News and the Guardian. A $20 billion buyback plan appears in the Guardian as well. If shipments through the Persian Gulf have already recovered, why are pump prices still high?
Bottom line

The profit-and-price story changes if oil is already flowing through the Gulf again. Only the New York Post reports that those shipments have climbed past prewar volume.

The receipts — 2 facts one side's coverage lacks
  • Trump pledged gasoline below $2 a gallon within 12 months of taking office official statementin NBC News · absent from right-leaning coverage
  • The administration's recent fuel-price measures have not meaningfully brought prices down contextin NBC News · absent from right-leaning coverage
The Left View
Left-leaning outlets framed the results as a boon for oil companies and a “major pain point” for consumers heading into the midterms, where a Harris poll for the Guardian found 36 percent of voters naming the rising cost of living the single most important issue. They juxtaposed Trump’s 2024 $2-a-gallon pledge with the Georgia rally, quoting him as saying advisers asked him not to mention the profits because “people are paying a little higher,” then: “I don’t give a damn: I’m going to say it. We’re making a freaking fortune.” NBC News and the Guardian noted he has celebrated higher oil and gas profits on the trail while his administration’s orders—including Defense Production Act funding for refineries—have not meaningfully brought prices down. Coverage also quoted Exxon CEO Darren Woods attributing elevated product prices to Hormuz closures forcing new shipping routes and to “about half of Russia’s refinery capacity” being “taken out from the Ukraine bombing,” with diesel as “the key crunch point.”
The Right View
Right-leaning outlets likewise reported consumers being squeezed at the pump and cited wartime supply shocks, while giving more space to administration pushback and industry explanations. The New York Post quoted White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers saying Trump’s “top priority is lowering gas prices,” that he has a “proven record of driving prices at the pump down to multi-year lows,” and that “once the conflict with Iran comes to an end, gas prices will plummet, and the Iranian terrorist regime will not have a nuclear weapon.” They noted Trump in August had told Exxon and Chevron they “ought to give some of that back to the public” and “better cut the retail price,” saying “I’m not happy about it,” before his tone shifted on the trail. Fox Business emphasized refining earnings hitting multi-year highs because conflicts disrupted global supplies, diesel’s hit to trucking, and CPI gas-price swings; the Post quoted MarketWatch’s Derek Reisfield that “there is no short-term fix” because of longstanding U.S. refining-capacity constraints, and BP’s CEO saying she was “proud of the contribution bp is making to keep energy flowing.”
Our Take (balanced)
Left-leaning coverage’s strongest argument is the collision between record wartime refining profits and household fuel costs more than double Trump’s 2024 $2-a-gallon pledge, crystallized by his own words that advisers warned him not to boast because people are paying more—and that he would say it anyway. Right-leaning coverage’s strongest argument is that the profits track a genuine global shortage, including Hormuz disruption and damaged Russian refining, while U.S. plants are already at record utilization, and the White House ties relief to ending the Iran war rather than to corporate restraint. The central unresolved tension is whether those earnings are a wartime dividend of U.S. energy production to be read as “energy dominance,” or a transfer from drivers to shareholders that undercuts the administration’s cost-of-living message and its 2024 price promises.

8 sources

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