Early Voting Trends in 2026 Midterms
Left 50%
Center 0%
Right 50%
1 left · 0 center · 1 right
What happened
With less than two weeks until the 2026 midterm elections, more than 18 million Americans had voted early by mail or in person as of Thursday, according to the Election Lab at the University of Florida. An ABC News analysis of L2 voter-file data as of October 19 showed registered Democrats and modeled likely Democratic voters had cast a higher share of early votes than in 2024 in all states except Alaska and Michigan, with Georgia and Iowa about 18 points more Democratic. In Michigan about 670,000 ballots had been cast by October 19 (90 percent from voters in at least three of four recent general elections) and Georgia nearly 850,000 (71 percent highest-propensity versus 63 percent in 2024). Democrat Abdul el-Sayed led Republican Mike Rogers by 2 points in the Michigan Senate RealClearPolitics average following a town hall on reported family Muslim Brotherhood ties and a later debate.
Omitted — what each side leaves out
Unpacked
Right-leaning coverage asks whether Michigan can still be moved in the closing days without reporting that a large share of the state's ballots are already in. Left-leaning coverage is simply more complete on the early vote: it reports that more than 18 million Americans had already cast ballots, with Democrats holding a higher share than in the last presidential election in nearly every state. That analysis found 670,000 Michigan votes already cast, nearly all from habitual voters, yet it never names the Senate candidates those ballots will count toward.
Left-leaning coverage leads with Democratic enthusiasm and the reminder that Republicans have usually won Election Day. Right-leaning coverage leads with a town-hall clash over the Muslim Brotherhood and whether late negative ads can still move a race described as tied.
What share of Michigan's still-undecided voters have not already voted?
Bottom line
A reader of the Washington Examiner would not know that 18 million ballots were already in, even as that outlet asked whether Michigan could still be moved.
The receipts — 4 facts one side's coverage lacks
- More than 18 million Americans had voted early by mail or in person as of Thursday.
- Registered Democrats and modeled Democratic voters have cast a higher share of early votes than in 2024 in every state except Alaska and Michigan.
- In Georgia and Iowa, the total early vote is about 18 points more Democratic than in 2024.
- Nearly 850,000 votes had already been cast in Georgia as of Oct. 19.
The Left View
ABC News called the early-vote figures "one more piece of evidence that Democratic enthusiasm is high in some key states," linking them to higher Democratic primary turnout and to polls in which 72 percent of Democrats said they were certain to vote compared with 65 percent of Republicans (and 36 percent of Democrats very enthusiastic versus 29 percent of Republicans). It noted Democrats comprise a much larger share of ballots cast so far and that low-propensity voters in Georgia are still far more Democratic by modeled partisanship than in 2024, yet emphasized these data "are only one piece of the story" because they do not show whether low-propensity voters will turn out later or on Election Day. Historical 2024 patterns gave Democrats a 24-point mail margin and Republicans a 16-point Election Day edge; poll respondents planning Election Day votes favored Republicans by 11 points. ABC said the big question is whether lower-propensity Republican voters turn out.
The Right View
The Washington Examiner stated that voter attitudes toward President Donald Trump and the economy "are indeed set," but a Republican strategist suggested there is still "room to maneuver" in shaping feelings toward specific candidates with negative ads and new unflattering information. It called el-Sayed’s 2-point lead "really, really narrow" and "reasonable to call the race tied," arguing he ran good affordability ads but "foolishly started to take the bait" on Muslim Brotherhood questions, becoming evasive at a town hall and claiming the queries violated the First Amendment’s religion clauses. After the town-hall video went viral he released a faith ad; Rogers told debate viewers el-Sayed is "a risk to our national security." The GOP operative concluded "This thing is starting to end in an area that’s not good for him."
Our Take (balanced)
ABC News’s strongest argument, supported by the matched voter-file shares, primary results, and the 72-to-65 certain-to-vote gap, is that Democrats already enjoy an enthusiasm and participation edge among those who have voted. The Examiner’s strongest argument, supported by the viral town-hall video and debate exchange, is that a 2-point race can still move if a candidate mishandles a late controversy among remaining undecided voters. The central unresolved tension is whether Election Day voters, who have favored Republicans in recent elections, will offset the early Democratic advantage, or whether candidate-specific late developments can still determine outcomes in contests as close as Michigan’s Senate race.
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