Will continued AI progress over the next few decades cause extremely rapid, historically unprecedented economic and technological growth?

“Now, in my opinion, the reason this argument is actually brought up is because people are not able to see the fruits of the progress. That goes to your point earlier. Where is the amazing software? Why isn't American GDP running at 12% year over year? First of all, Give it a minute. It hasn't even been a year, god”

“the AI boom is continuing. The other narrative that's getting shredded today is that this AI CapEx is a bubble. It's basically going to end very soon. And what Nvidia is basically saying with its numbers and forecasts is actually this AI CapEx is going to continue well into the future.”

“the entire economy is effectively levered to this AI trade right now. And so we just have to tread carefully. If you think that you have, you know, 3.5% inflation and 5% nominal GDP growth, what you have is 1.5% real. And the problem with that is that AI is probably the majority, if not all of it.”

“I think Anthropic is lowballing estimates. I think the Fed doesn't have, even, even the, the regional Feds don't have the macroeconomic, likely macroeconomic instrumentation to measure what's about to happen. I, I think there is a universe in which real GDP, or maybe even real GDP, not quite the right metric as Elon and others would remind us, real”

“if you said, do I believe, you know, as a guy who's been investing for thirty plus years, do I believe this? I, I believe this is, if anything, a lower bound. The, the self-improvement effect is astronomical.”

“I expect 2x or 3x year over year growth and, and not just 15. I think 15 is like a low ball.”

“Anthropic published its own economic impact report, the one, and this one showed IPO investors, that they're part of a $30 trillion total addressable market. They put forward three scenarios. The extreme scenario is that AI performs almost half of today's cognitive work by 2030. GDP growth rises at 15% a year.”

“Yeah, look, revenue growth will slow down or there will be the entire US economy in seven years, you know, at the current rate.”

“Over the course of the last four or five years, we've been 2x-ing or 3x-ing the amount of compute capacity devoted to AI every year. And an interesting question will be, and so I think that's roughly together the hyperscalers are spending about a trillion dollars this year on, on CapEx related to, to AI. A very interesting question will”

“Well, it's important to note that I still believe there will be an explosive takeoff in the sense that I still believe that the growth rates are going to go up and up. So right now we have maybe like a three percent growth rate in the world economy. I think we'll get higher growth rates, which means that we'll”

“people's 401ks are going up. It's a 3% tailwind to GDP. A million new jobs created, according to The Economist already. Productivity goes up, which means that wages and living standards go up.”

“If you are not delirious or at the very least, very excited, actually, I guess that's not even true. If you're not recognizing the gravity of the moment, that's the delusion. That's the psychosis. The psychosis is believing that the world is barely different.”

“I think people that felt like things would take longer are starting to feel like actually things are going faster than expected. And that's an increasingly common conversation to have.”

“I love this quote, I think it's Lenin, there are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen. And we have seen decades of progress happen in the last nine months.”

“we have seen decades of progress happen in the last nine months.”

“We've not had any other form of progress that has moved as fast as AI.”

“that's definitely a lower bound now. you know, it's much more likely a thousand to ten thousand X year. which is just a layering of those two effects that you just described.”

“And I think that's happening with AI and the question is going to happen fast enough.”

“But remember, slow is still on an exponential, it's just, you know, maybe a year or two out.”

“Least likely is fairly easy. That's nothing changes. I'm uncertain about lots of things, but one thing I'm fairly certain of is things are going to radically change.”

“These jumps in capabilities were so fast and so sudden that they created an extremely difficult problem. He emphasizes again and again that models are going to keep surprising us. There will continue to be, at an ever greater rate, sudden jumps in AI capability”

“at that point in time, whatever AI progress you thought was going to be made by default in the next 10 years or the next 20 years or the next 30 years might be made in a year or two, or even six months, based on how much, depending on how much AI, is speeding everything up.”

“I did two auto research runs, which isn't even auto research anymore. You don't have to do the slash. You just tell it to keep going until you tell it to stop. It ended up, I think we ended up with a 46 time execution improvement over the original.”

“If you're a programmer who was out hiking the Himalayas for a year, and you come back, you can catch up in two weeks. And this is actually the great credit to the progress we're experiencing. We have so many experiments running simultaneously right now that are constantly and ruthlessly sorting what works, what doesn't work. You don't have to”

“we're going to challenge teams to find a problem that impacts 100,000 people. It should be something that's meaningful. And then we're going to give you 90 days from a clean sheet of paper to go build a revenue generating profitable company.”

“when research got fully automated, when compute was the bottleneck, not humans, we should expect roughly a year's worth of progress in about five weeks.”

“You're not going to miss anything. This is the part that actually grinded my gears in the early phases of this transition. Everyone was so up in arms that if you didn't, it's loops now. Oh, no, no, we're done with loops. It's graphs now. Oh, no, no, we're done with that. It's, it's harnesses this, right? They're constantly churning”

“AI has been around for as long as computer science has been around. In the 50s, they thought the problem was going to be cracked in about a decade. The smartest people at the time. Took a little longer. But the reason it took a little longer was in part because we took some blind turns on the road to”

“Not gonna slow down, guys. Not gonna slow down. get used to it. It's slowest it'll ever be.”

“I don't think we should slow down. I don't think we can. I see no mechanisms around regulating this. I'm perfectly comfortable with the uncertainty that comes with the, if we do end up solving everything, freaking amazing.”

“it's just going to be one of those situations, you know, like car versus horse. Like, oh, these cars are a joke. The horse is better. But then one day the horse is not better. And there's a lot of qualitative change that's going to happen.”

“what the people that were worried about the sci-fi scenarios have been warning about all along is we're on an exponential, and it's going to get more capable, and there's nothing special about the zone between it's useful and it's scary.”

“updating over the course of years, that's like really fast for humans. But then the AI progress is going even faster than that, right?”

“I would say like two years.”

“I can kind of see that actually. Cuz like it really is just like right now it's already like definitely more than 10x of like coding stuff. And so it's like if it can do even like one or two loops of like experimental feedback, that would actually be massive already.”

“Somewhere between five and ten years.”

“I do feel confident in saying that things are going faster now than they were, like even a year ago, because of AI progress. And I think that that acceleration will continue.”

“If you had to put a gun to my head and like ask me for a number, like I could see things going 3x faster. And that is huge, right?”

“it could be that things only go 50% faster. It could be that things, I, I think it's unlikely, but it's possible things go 10x faster. There's, there's a lot of uncertainty around this.”

“A bubble is whenever asset prices detach from any semblance of economic reality. We have one of the largest CapEx, competitive CapEx spending waves in history.”

“Not to mention that a lot of the people that are saying these are, this is exponential growth, are the people who want to sell shares that they want to be growing exponentially, right?”

“updating over the course of years, that's like really fast for humans. But then the AI progress is going even faster than that, right?”

“when research got fully automated, when compute was the bottleneck, not humans, we should expect roughly a year's worth of progress in about five weeks.”

“I can kind of see that actually. Cuz like it really is just like right now it's already like definitely more than 10x of like coding stuff. And so it's like if it can do even like one or two loops of like experimental feedback, that would actually be massive already.”

“at that point in time, whatever AI progress you thought was going to be made by default in the next 10 years or the next 20 years or the next 30 years might be made in a year or two, or even six months, based on how much, depending on how much AI, is speeding everything up.”

“But remember, slow is still on an exponential, it's just, you know, maybe a year or two out.”

“it's just going to be one of those situations, you know, like car versus horse. Like, oh, these cars are a joke. The horse is better. But then one day the horse is not better. And there's a lot of qualitative change that's going to happen.”

“what the people that were worried about the sci-fi scenarios have been warning about all along is we're on an exponential, and it's going to get more capable, and there's nothing special about the zone between it's useful and it's scary.”

“people's 401ks are going up. It's a 3% tailwind to GDP. A million new jobs created, according to The Economist already. Productivity goes up, which means that wages and living standards go up.”

“If you are not delirious or at the very least, very excited, actually, I guess that's not even true. If you're not recognizing the gravity of the moment, that's the delusion. That's the psychosis. The psychosis is believing that the world is barely different.”

“Now, in my opinion, the reason this argument is actually brought up is because people are not able to see the fruits of the progress. That goes to your point earlier. Where is the amazing software? Why isn't American GDP running at 12% year over year? First of all, Give it a minute. It hasn't even been a year, god”

“If you had to put a gun to my head and like ask me for a number, like I could see things going 3x faster. And that is huge, right?”

“I think Anthropic is lowballing estimates. I think the Fed doesn't have, even, even the, the regional Feds don't have the macroeconomic, likely macroeconomic instrumentation to measure what's about to happen. I, I think there is a universe in which real GDP, or maybe even real GDP, not quite the right metric as Elon and others would remind us, real”

“if you said, do I believe, you know, as a guy who's been investing for thirty plus years, do I believe this? I, I believe this is, if anything, a lower bound. The, the self-improvement effect is astronomical.”

“These jumps in capabilities were so fast and so sudden that they created an extremely difficult problem. He emphasizes again and again that models are going to keep surprising us. There will continue to be, at an ever greater rate, sudden jumps in AI capability”

“the entire economy is effectively levered to this AI trade right now. And so we just have to tread carefully. If you think that you have, you know, 3.5% inflation and 5% nominal GDP growth, what you have is 1.5% real. And the problem with that is that AI is probably the majority, if not all of it.”

“the AI boom is continuing. The other narrative that's getting shredded today is that this AI CapEx is a bubble. It's basically going to end very soon. And what Nvidia is basically saying with its numbers and forecasts is actually this AI CapEx is going to continue well into the future.”

“Not to mention that a lot of the people that are saying these are, this is exponential growth, are the people who want to sell shares that they want to be growing exponentially, right?”

“A bubble is whenever asset prices detach from any semblance of economic reality. We have one of the largest CapEx, competitive CapEx spending waves in history.”