Will AI and automation lead to widespread net unemployment rather than mostly changing jobs and creating new ones?

“as these industries increasingly get automated using robotics, AIs wouldn't need humans anymore.”

“20% of cognitive workers being unemployed in three, four years”

“As you cross reliability thresholds, both with white collar and human-eyed robots, You destroy jobs, and you leave no high ground.”

“When you invent radial tires that last four times as long, for some weird reason, people didn't drive four times as much. And Factories that make tires employ a quarter of as many people. When you replace people in Amazon warehouses with robots, people don't buy more because of that.”

“As soon as you complete the entire task, it doesn't matter that there's demand elasticity. That goes into the token budget. It doesn't go into the human salary budget. ... You destroy jobs, and you leave no high ground.”

“the disruption will vastly outpace our ability to create new positions.”

“Well, I think jobs are going to be eliminated. That's a big one.”

“Fable hitting sixteen point four percent, like thirty percent ahead of Opus, again, remote work on the previous thing. Like, your job Will be replaced or can be replaced by an AI definitely by next year and certainly by the year after.”

“There's obviously so much for society to absorb and try to adapt to without going off the fucking rails, okay? Because we're talking about, I think, before long, a lot of jobs being jobs that you better either reinvent radically or abandon. And that's my prediction, you know, within a, within a couple of years, a lot of people think”

“People who say there'll be net additional jobs, I don't understand what they're thinking. They must not understand the piece of improvement we're on, that, you know, the reliability.”

“I think things like that, you, you may have technical assistance when you get there, that a computer helps diagnose the problem and helps fix the air conditioner, but I don't think the jobs, I, I talk to people every day, and many of them are, well, you're going to have to carry things and install things. You have to”

“It completely ignores the fact that there's ways for knowledge workers to take advantage of the tools and lean into it.”

“We just published, I think, one of the lowest unemployment rates in the US. And I think that this idea That your current job is going to get disrupted and you're going to lose your job. I don't think it's how the enterprise transitions.”

“The strongest evidence he found looking at payroll data about the negative job, about the, the job losses coming from AI. It is in the most exposed professions, think about software engineers. It is among the new entrants to the workforce where you've got to teach them before they can become really productive. That's exactly what we'd expect. And it's”

“the fallacy, and now it's, you know, because of some of the narratives and some of the storytelling has turned into myth, and it's harmful, is that, that, AI will destroy jobs, which is fundamentally wrong. It'll change every job. It'll change every job. Many tasks will be automated.”

“I believe that, that we are going to see, jobs change in mass. I believe there's going to be a net creation of jobs.”

“I believe that's flawed because there's a piece of input, the human input, this intangible, it is not in calories, it's not in joules, it's ambition. And I believe the power of ambition is the greatest force in fact.”

“everything tells us, all the data up until now, that there will be more jobs and more to do. ... There will be more work to be done, more judgment, more taste to be imposed.”

“AI is not going to take away those jobs. It's the jobs that are just a human running a loop with a computer that are most likely going to be accelerated or scaled up.”

“you will start to see is a whole class of roles that we can't imagine within companies, you know, whether it's things like the webmaster, which didn't exist in, you know, 1993. And ... they tend to construct entire new classes of Work and behavior that we hadn't been able to put our fingers on.”

“there was a prediction that, that, literally by this year that ninety percent of all software will be coded by, by agents, and therefore we don't need any software engineers. And so the question is, from that, ergo, we don't need software engineers, that last part is completely false. That's completely wrong.”

“AI's going to put everyone out of work. Total fake narrative. That was last year's hoax. Now there's a new hoax about human extinction. Data centers. Data centers. You know, using up everyone's water. Data center hoax, yeah. So we have a series of, I call them rotating hoaxes”

“And if you look at the employment stats, it's fuzzy. It's not clear what's going to happen at all. Some stats actually show an increase in openings because the advent of AI is so dramatically lowering the price of programs that people want a lot more programs.”

“And if you look at the employment stats, it's fuzzy. It's not clear what's going to happen at all. Some stats actually show an increase in openings because the advent of AI is so dramatically lowering the price of programs that people want a lot more programs.”

“AI's going to put everyone out of work. Total fake narrative. That was last year's hoax. Now there's a new hoax about human extinction. Data centers. Data centers. You know, using up everyone's water. Data center hoax, yeah. So we have a series of, I call them rotating hoaxes”

“there was a prediction that, that, literally by this year that ninety percent of all software will be coded by, by agents, and therefore we don't need any software engineers. And so the question is, from that, ergo, we don't need software engineers, that last part is completely false. That's completely wrong.”

“We just published, I think, one of the lowest unemployment rates in the US. And I think that this idea That your current job is going to get disrupted and you're going to lose your job. I don't think it's how the enterprise transitions.”

“everything tells us, all the data up until now, that there will be more jobs and more to do. ... There will be more work to be done, more judgment, more taste to be imposed.”

“I believe that's flawed because there's a piece of input, the human input, this intangible, it is not in calories, it's not in joules, it's ambition. And I believe the power of ambition is the greatest force in fact.”

“It completely ignores the fact that there's ways for knowledge workers to take advantage of the tools and lean into it.”

“I think things like that, you, you may have technical assistance when you get there, that a computer helps diagnose the problem and helps fix the air conditioner, but I don't think the jobs, I, I talk to people every day, and many of them are, well, you're going to have to carry things and install things. You have to”

“20% of cognitive workers being unemployed in three, four years”

“as these industries increasingly get automated using robotics, AIs wouldn't need humans anymore.”

“There's obviously so much for society to absorb and try to adapt to without going off the fucking rails, okay? Because we're talking about, I think, before long, a lot of jobs being jobs that you better either reinvent radically or abandon. And that's my prediction, you know, within a, within a couple of years, a lot of people think”

“AI's going to put everyone out of work. Total fake narrative. That was last year's hoax. Now there's a new hoax about human extinction. Data centers. Data centers. You know, using up everyone's water. Data center hoax, yeah. So we have a series of, I call them rotating hoaxes”

“as these industries increasingly get automated using robotics, AIs wouldn't need humans anymore.”

“AI is not going to take away those jobs. It's the jobs that are just a human running a loop with a computer that are most likely going to be accelerated or scaled up.”

“you will start to see is a whole class of roles that we can't imagine within companies, you know, whether it's things like the webmaster, which didn't exist in, you know, 1993. And ... they tend to construct entire new classes of Work and behavior that we hadn't been able to put our fingers on.”

“the fallacy, and now it's, you know, because of some of the narratives and some of the storytelling has turned into myth, and it's harmful, is that, that, AI will destroy jobs, which is fundamentally wrong. It'll change every job. It'll change every job. Many tasks will be automated.”

“the disruption will vastly outpace our ability to create new positions.”

“I believe that's flawed because there's a piece of input, the human input, this intangible, it is not in calories, it's not in joules, it's ambition. And I believe the power of ambition is the greatest force in fact.”

“I think things like that, you, you may have technical assistance when you get there, that a computer helps diagnose the problem and helps fix the air conditioner, but I don't think the jobs, I, I talk to people every day, and many of them are, well, you're going to have to carry things and install things. You have to”

“There's obviously so much for society to absorb and try to adapt to without going off the fucking rails, okay? Because we're talking about, I think, before long, a lot of jobs being jobs that you better either reinvent radically or abandon. And that's my prediction, you know, within a, within a couple of years, a lot of people think”

“there was a prediction that, that, literally by this year that ninety percent of all software will be coded by, by agents, and therefore we don't need any software engineers. And so the question is, from that, ergo, we don't need software engineers, that last part is completely false. That's completely wrong.”

“20% of cognitive workers being unemployed in three, four years”

“I believe that, that we are going to see, jobs change in mass. I believe there's going to be a net creation of jobs.”

“It completely ignores the fact that there's ways for knowledge workers to take advantage of the tools and lean into it.”

“everything tells us, all the data up until now, that there will be more jobs and more to do. ... There will be more work to be done, more judgment, more taste to be imposed.”